1. INFLATION RATES FOR ALL ITEMS

Headline Inflation

The headline inflation in BARMM increased at 1.6 percent in January 2025. In December, the inflation rate was recorded at 1.3 percent. In comparison, the inflation rate in January 2024 was higher at 4.2 percent. Lanao del Sur and Maguindanao showed higher inflation rates compared to their previous month’s rates. While Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi and Cotabato City, an Independent Component City (ICC), posted a lower inflation rate than in the previous month. (See Table 1 and Figure 2.)

Main Drivers to the Upward Trend of the Headline Inflation

The change in overall inflation in BARMM in January 2025 was primarily driven by the increase in the index food and non-alcoholic beverages, which increased at 0.4 percent in January 2025 from -0.2 percent in the previous month.  It was followed by the information and communication, 0.3 percent from 0.2 percent. Another contributor to the increasing inflation was the Recreation, Sport and Culture sector, which also increased at 2.2 percent.

Meanwhile, the following commodity groups shows lower inflation in January 2025:

a. Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco, 1.5 percent from 1.8 percent;

b. Clothing and Footwear, 1.7 percent from 1.8 percent;

c. Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels, 3.5 percent from 3.8 percent;

d. Furnishing, Household Equipment, Routine and Maintenance of the House, 2.8 percent from 2.9 percent;

e. Transport, 3.7 percent from 4.4 percent;

f, Restaurants and Accommodation Services, 4.9 percent from 5.4 percent;

g. Personal Care, Miscellaneous Goods and Services, 3.8 percent from 4.1 percent.

On the other hand, the following commodities remain the same as their December 2024 rates: (Table 2):

a. Health, 2.3 percent;

b. Education Services, 5.0 percent;

c. Financial Services, 0.0 percent;

1. INFLATION RATES FOR FOOD ITEMS

For food commodities, inflation increased to 0.3 percent in January 2025 from -0.5 percent in the previous month. In January 2024, inflation of food items was higher at 5.1 percent. (Table 3)

The increase in the region's food inflation was primarily driven by the higher index for vegetables, tubers, cooking bananas and pulses, which has increased to -0.5 percent during the month, compared to a -4.3 percent in December 2024. This was followed by meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals, which increased to 5.3 percent from 0.8 percent in the previous month. Additionally, the index for Fruits and Nuts increased to 1.3 percent in January 2025, from -1.9 percent in December 2024.

Moreover, an increase in rates was also observed in the food group for Fish and Other Seafood, which increased to 1.0 percent from 0.4 percent in December 2024. Similarly, the rate of oils and fats, and sugar, confectionery and desserts increased to 0.4 percent and -2.6 percent from -0.6 percent and -2.9 percent in the previous month, respectively.

Conversely, the food group comprising cereals recorded lower inflation rates in January 2025, decreasing to -2.3 percent from -1.4 percent in December 2024. Additionally, the group for milk, other dairy products and eggs saw a decrease to 4.7 percent, compared to 5.3 percent in December 2024. Ready-Made Food and Other Food Products N.E.C recorded also a lower inflation of 1.3 percent from -1.7 percent from the previous month. 

1. PURCHASING POWER OF PESO

In BARMM, the Purchasing Power of the Peso (PPP) is at PhP 0.79 as of January 2025. (Figure 2) 

TECHNICAL NOTES: 

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

The CPI is an indicator of the changes in the average retail prices of a fixed basket of goods and services commonly purchased by households relative to a base year.

Uses of CPI

The CPI is most widely used in the calculation of the inflation rate and purchasing power of peso. It is a major statistical series used for economic analysis and as a monitoring indicator of government economic policy.

Computation of CPI

The computation of the CPI involves consideration of the following important points: 

1. Base Period

The reference date or base period is the benchmark or reference date or period at which the index is taken as equal to 100.

1. Market Basket

A sample of the thousands of varieties of goods purchased for consumption and services availed by the households in the country selected to represent the composite price behavior of all goods and services purchased by consumers.

1. Weighting System

The weighting pattern uses the expenditures on various consumer items purchased by households as a proportion to total expenditure.

1. Formula

The formula used in computing the CPI is the weighted arithmetic mean of price relatives, the Laspeyre’s formula with a fixed base year period (2018) weight.

1. Geographic Coverage

CPI values are computed at the national, regional, and provincial levels, and for selected cities. 

Inflation Rate 

the rate of change of the CPI expressed in percent. Inflation is interpreted in terms of the declining purchasing power of the peso.

Headline Inflation

refers to the rate of change in the CPI, a measure of the average standard “basket” of goods and services consumed by a typical family.

Purchasing Power of Peso

shows how much the peso in the base period is worth in the current period. It is computed as the reciprocal of the CPI for the period under review multiplied by 100.

Note: The dataset used in the special release is exclusive for BARMM provinces including Cotabato City and excluding Special Geographic Area (SGA).

Approved for release:

ENGR. AKAN G. TULA

OIC-Regional Director

EDFE/BMB/AAA